Russia suspended participation in the U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain deal after what it said was a Ukrainian drone attack on vessels in the Bay of Sevastopol in the early hours of Saturday. What do we know so far?

WHAT HAPPENED?

Russia said 16 air and maritime drones attacked civilian and Black Sea Fleet vessels in the Bay of Sevastopol in Crimea at 0420 Kyiv time on Saturday.

Russia said all nine of the air drones were destroyed. Four of the seven maritime drones were destroyed on the outer perimeter of the bay, but three more made it inside before they were destroyed, Russia said. Russia reported minor damage to the minesweeper Ivan Golubets, the ministry said.

Reuters was unable to immediately verify battlefield accounts. Unverified footage on social media showed what appeared to be maritime drones speeding across the water towards a Russian battleship while bullets were fired at the drone.

WHO CARRIED OUT THE ATTACK?

Russia’s defense ministry said the attack was carried out by Ukraine’s 73rd Marine Special Operations Center under the guidance and leadership of British navy specialists in the town of Ochakiv on the Black Sea coast. It said that personnel from the same British navy unit, which it did not name, had blown up the Nord Stream pipelines last month. Britain denied the claim.

“To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale,” a spokesperson for Britain’s ministry of defense said.

“This latest invented story says more about the arguments going on inside the Russian Government than it does about the West.” Ukraine has neither denied nor confirmed that it carried out the drone attack on Sevastopol and has instead suggested that Russia carried out the attack on itself so that it could suspend participation in the grain deal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said Russia had carried out “fictitious terrorist attacks on its own facilities”.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine has provided evidence for their claims.

WHERE DID THE DRONES COME FROM?

Russia says it has recovered the wreckage of some of the maritime drones. It said it had investigated the memory of the Canadian-made navigation modules installed on the drones. The maritime drones, it said, were launched from the coast near Odesa and had moved along the grain corridor security zone before heading into the Bay of Sevastopol, the largest city on the Crimean peninsula that Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

The defense ministry said one of the maritime drones appeared to have started from within the security zone of the grain corridor itself. “This may indicate the preliminary launch of this device from aboard one of the civilian vessels chartered by Kyiv or its Western patrons for the export of agricultural products from the seaports of Ukraine,” the defense ministry said.

WHAT HAPPENS TO THE GRAIN DEAL?

Russia has been careful not to completely walk away from the deal.

“The Russian side cannot guarantee the safety of civilian dry cargo ships participating in the ‘Black Sea initiative’ and suspends its implementation from today on indefinite period,” the Russian foreign ministry said on Oct. 29.

Talks on extending a July deal that resumed Ukraine Black Sea grain and fertilizer exports are not making much progress because Russian concerns are not being taken into proper account, Russia’s U.N. ambassador in Geneva said on Thursday.

Senior United Nations officials are negotiating with Russia to extend and expand the July 22 deal that could expire next month if an agreement is not reached.

“I wouldn’t say that much has been achieved as a result of the latest consultations. The dialogue is continuing,” Gennady Gatilov told reporters.

He reiterated Moscow’s stance that Western sanctions were hamstringing its own exports of grain and fertilizer, even to poor countries that need the supplies.

“There is no point in continuing an agreement, one part of which may come out as dead on arrival. So, of course, the Russian… authorities will be very seriously considering the future of the extension of this grain deal,” he said.

Gatilov told Reuters last week that Moscow has submitted concerns to the United Nations about the agreement on Black Sea grain exports and was prepared to reject renewing the deal.

The agreement creating a protected sea transit corridor was designed to alleviate global food shortages, with Ukraine’s customers including some of the world’s poorest countries.

The early focus was on moving ships which had been stuck in Ukrainian ports for months, most of which were laden with corn and booked by developed countries.

The bulk of last year’s wheat crop in Ukraine, which is harvested earlier than corn, had already been shipped when Russian troops entered the country.

Developing countries such as Somalia and Eritrea rely heavily on imports of wheat from both Russia and Ukraine.

In a briefing for Geneva reporters, Gatilov played down the idea that Russia would use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict even though the Kremlin has repeatedly raised the prospect of doing just that.

“We will never do this, at least, we will not be the country who initiate this, so it’s clear,” he said.

Gatilov said Moscow had told the International Committee of the Red Cross that it would cooperate on arranging visits to Ukrainian prisoners of war.

“But you must imagine that we have more than 6,000 Ukrainian prisoners and sometimes it’s not possible to organize all visits. Ukrainians have less. And this is not the issue of number of visits. The issue is the quality of visit and the result of this visit,” he said.

He also dismissed allegations that Russian forces or their allies were forcibly deporting Ukrainian children.

“We are not trying to – as some mass media are trying to put it – kidnap Ukrainian children. This is not our goal. This is simply an attempt to help children that need really care, that need support,” he said.

Moscow has submitted concerns to the United Nations about an agreement on Black Sea grain exports, and is prepared to reject renewing the deal next month unless its demands are addressed, Russia’s Geneva U.N. ambassador told Reuters on Thursday.

The agreement, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in July, paved the way for Ukraine to resume grain exports from Black Sea ports that had been shut since Russia invaded. Moscow won guarantees for its own grain and fertilizer exports.

The agreement helped stave off a global food crisis: Russia and Ukraine are two of the world’s biggest grain exporters and Russia is the number one fertiliser exporter. But Moscow has repeatedly complained about its implementation, arguing it still faces difficulty selling fertilizer and food.

In an interview with Reuters, Gennady Gatilov, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, said Moscow had delivered a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday setting out a list of complaints. U.N. officials are due in Moscow on Sunday to discuss the renewal of the agreement.

“If we see nothing is happening on the Russian side of the deal – export of Russian grains and fertilizers – then excuse us, we will have to look at it in a different way,” he said.

Asked if Russia might withhold support for the grains deal’s renewal over the concerns, he said: “There is a possibility…We are not against deliveries of grains but this deal should be equal, it should be fair and fairly implemented by all sides.”

Gatilov declined to make a copy of the letter available.

U.N. speokesperson Stephane Dujarric said: “We remain in constant touch with Russian officials, as well as with officials from the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States in order to remove the last obstacles to facilitate the export of Russian grain and fertiliser.”

He said Guterres was committed to those efforts and to having an extended and expanded Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Gatilov, a career diplomat who was deputy minister of foreign affairs before taking up the Geneva post, said that he saw fading prospects for a negotiated settlement to the nearly eight month war in Ukraine. He cited what he called “terrorist acts” such as an explosion on a bridge to Crimea.

“All this makes it more difficult to reach a political solution,” he said.

Washington has said that Russian claims to be open to talks on the war’s future amount to “posturing” as it continues to strike Ukrainian cities.

Asked about the prospect of a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden, Gatilov said it was not feasible given the levels of U.S. military support for Ukraine. “It makes the U.S. a part of the conflict,” he said.

However, he was more upbeat on other negotiated outcomes such as on aid access and a further prisoner swap, calling these “a possibility”. He said a delegation of the International Committee of the Red Cross had met with Russia’s defense ministry in Moscow recently about a possible swap, without giving further details. The ICRC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

On Thursday, a Romanian Navy minesweeper was struck and damaged by a naval mine during a mission in the Black Sea, the service reported in a statement.

At about 1300 on Thursday afternoon, the minesweeper Locotenent Dimitrie Nicolescu was dispatched to neutralize a drifting mine at a position some 25 nm off the coast of Constanta. By the time the vessel arrived on station, conditions had worsened to the point that it was not practical to have divers and a RIB in the water. Wave heights were in the range of six feet and winds were about 20 knots.

After dark, in continued rough weather, the ship was hit by the drifting mine. The detonation made a small hole towards the stern, near the waterline.

No injuries were reported and the ship and crew remain safe, the service said. Buoyancy and stability were not affected. The crew took action to plug the hole and to limit ingress of seawater, and their efforts were successful; an initial Romanian media report suggested that the vessel’s engines were disabled, but the service did not confirm a loss of power.

The Romanian Navy fleet tug Grozavul and an embarked dive team were quickly dispatched to meet up with the Nicolescu and provide assistance. AIS tracking data shows that the Grozavul sortied from Constanta Thursday night and returned to port on Friday afternoon.

According to the Romanian Navy’s count, this was the 28th drifting sea mine found in the western Black Sea region since the launch of the Russian invasion; the vast majority have been found and neutralized in Ukrainian waters, but three have been spotted off Turkey, two off Romania and one off Bulgaria.

Fulfilment of the arrangement on grain exports from the Ukrainian ports, recently reached after continuous effort with the intermediation of the United Nations, has just begun, however, it means also significant increase in transport prices.

War means additional risks
Mr Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukrainian Minister for Infrastructure, has indicated that successful grain exports via seaways require not only subsidies, but also additional guaranties. Additional insurance guaranties are required to export grain from the Ukrainian Black Sea ports, because the Russia’s war against Ukraine causes additional risks which deter many carriers.

London has traditionally been the world’s largest ship insurance centre, the city where the insurance company’s “Lloyd’s” headquarters are located, therefore Great Britain should undertake the main role in drawing up insurance guarantees, notes “Politico”.

Ukrainian famers have done their job

Despite the extreme war conditions, grain crop in Ukraine promises to be good. Farmers, frequently risking their lives, completed sowing in timely manner and now are rushing for harvesting. Russian invaders have managed to plunder grain elevators in the occupied territory.

Ukraine hopes that, with the help of the British government, it will successfully ease the concerns expressed by ship captains as to the navigation in the Black Sea, where a number of mines have been placed since the beginning of hostilities.

Moscow has promised not to attack grain carrying merchant ships en route from Odessa and other Ukrainian ports, which have been blocked since the Russian invasion six months ago. During this time, grain prices in the global market have rapidly increased, because Ukraine is one of the largest grain exporters.

Russian strike against Odessa less than a day after signing the deal shows that ease the concerns expressed by ship captains as to the navigation safety in the Black Sea are justified, and that owners will not send their ships to the Ukrainian ports without additional insurance guaranties.

Coordination centre in Istanbul

Turkey has officially opened in Istanbul the Ukrainian joint coordination centre for cereal export, establishment of which was provided for within the framework of the arrangement reached with the UN support. The centre will employ civil and military staff from Ukraine and Russia, as well as representatives of Turkey and the UN. Their main task will be to ensure that Ukrainian ships with cereal cargoes safely move along certain routes, as well as to conduct inspections that the ships en route to and from the Black Sea do not carry prohibited weapons.

“Staff of this centre is aware that they are in the spotlight of the entire world”, said Mr Hulusi Akar, Turkish Minister for Defence, in his opening speech. “We hope that the contribution of the centre to human needs and peace will be as huge as possible.” According to the Turkish minister, Ukraine and Russia provide one third of the global wheat exports.

Suspension of deliveries from both of the large cereal exporting countries – Ukraine and Russia – is one of the factors contributing to the price rise, which has made the food imports in the world’s poorest countries unaffordable. During the hours following the signing of the deal on Ukrainian wheat exports, global prices fell rapidly.

Analysts are of opinion that reaching navigation security will be the decisive factor to begin grain exports from the Ukrainian ports.

Prior to the war launched by Russia, cost for transportation of a ton of grains from Ukraine on board a ship was 30 US dollars, now the fee could reach around 200 US dollars due to the dramatically increased risk.

It is very important for the Ukrainian government to begin grain exports to use the income for reconstruction of the national economy stricken by the war.

Rolands Petersons

The first grain ship to leave a Ukrainian port under a deal brokered last month will not arrive in Lebanon on Sunday as planned, the Ukrainian embassy in Lebanon said.

The Razoni left Odesa on the Black Sea early last Monday carrying 26,527 tonnes of corn and was set to dock on Sunday in the northern Lebanese port city of Tripoli, according to Ukrainian officials and Lebanese port authorities.

But the Ukrainian embassy in Lebanon told Reuters on Sunday the ship was “having a delay” and “not arriving today,” with no details on a new arrival date or the cause of the postponement.

Shipping data on MarineTraffic.com showed the Razoni off the Turkish coast on Sunday morning.

The vessel’s bill of lading, a copy of which was seen by Reuters on Sunday, had the expected arrival date as Tuesday and listed the cargo destination as “to order,” which typically means that a ship’s cargo can be transferred from one owner to the next.

Lebanon’s transport, agriculture and economy ministers all told Reuters last week they did not know who was purchasing the grain aboard the Razoni.

The shipment was made possible after Turkey and the United Nations brokered a grain and fertilizer export agreement between Moscow and Kyiv last month – a rare diplomatic breakthrough in a drawn-out war of attrition.

The U.N. had warned that the halt in grain shipments from Ukraine through the Russian-dominated Black Sea could prompt outbreaks of famine around the world.

The Joint Coordination Center (JCC), which will oversee the export of Ukrainian grain, said the ship would be used as a trial run, with information from Razoni’s crew used to fine-tune procedures for the next shipments.

Ukraine asked Lebanon’s top prosecutor on Wednesday to reopen a probe into a ship Kyiv says was carrying stolen grain that remains docked in Lebanon pending a seizure order.

Ukraine says the Syrian-flagged ship, in the northern Lebanese port of Tripoli, is carrying some 10,000 tonnes of flour and barley plundered by Russia following its February invasion.

Ukraine’s ambassador to Lebanon, Ihor Ostash, told a news conference at the embassy near Beirut that the request to investigate further was based on new evidence gathered by a Ukrainian judge and handed over to Lebanon on Monday.

The Lebanese prosecutor, Ghassan Oueidat, lifted a first seizure order on the Laodicea ship he had issued last week after finding no criminal offence committed. But it remains unable to sail until at least Thursday due to another order from a judge in Tripoli.

Moscow has previously denied stealing grain. Russia’s Embassy in Lebanon said it had no information on the cargo.

An official from the company that owns the cargo has also denied it was stolen and said the ship would sail to nearby Syria should it be allowed to leave.

Ukrainian authorities say the Laodicea travelled to a port in Russian-occupied Crimea closed to international shipping and that it took on cargo there before sailing to Lebanon.

Ostash added that a ship carrying 26,000 tons of corn, the first carrying Ukrainian grain to leave its Black Sea ports with cargo for international markets since Russia’s invasion, would arrive in Lebanon within four to five days.

He said Ukraine remained commited to supporting Lebanon with grain shipments as Lebanon deals with shortages of basic goods including wheat amid a three-year financial collapse.

Ukraine’s navy confirmed on Wednesday that work had started at three Ukrainian Black Sea ports aimed at preparing for the resumption of grain exports.

“In connection with the signing of the agreement on the unblocking (by Russia) of Ukrainian ports for the export of grain, work has been resumed in the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdeny,” the navy said on Facebook.

“The departure and arrival of ships to seaports will be carried out by forming a caravan that will accompany the lead ship.”

Moldova-flagged chemical tanker Millennial Spirit, which has been drifting in the Black Sea for over four months, was hit by another Russian missile during an air strike on the Odesa region on Thursday.

The 1974-built ship, formerly known as Freyja, was first hit by a navy ship 12 nautical miles south of Ukraine’s Yuzhniy port on February 25, the day after Russia invaded Ukraine. The crewmembers, all Russian, were rescued, but two of them were seriously wounded in the first attack.

The Ukrainian military branded the ship as an environmental time bomb and blamed the fact that it was drifting without a crew on a Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports.

“Currently, it is likely that the remains of the cargo are burning. At the time of the first hit, the ship carried more than 500 tonnes of diesel fuel,” said Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesman for the Head of the Odesa Regional Military Administration, on Telegram.

The ship was one of the first that had been hit by military forces in the opening days of the conflict, including the Turkish-owned bulk carrier Yasa Jupiter and the Panama-flagged bulk carrier Namura Queen.

Against the background of general economic problems, the very positive fact that the indicators of almost all Baltic Sea freight transport increased in the first three months of this year did not receive special attention. The growth in the transport freight sector cannot be caused only by the end of the pandemic. Pandemic restrictions and their economic consequences were very painful in the first quarter of this year. Therefore, the main cause is Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

There are at least two reasons for the increase. Immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, restrictions on transport movement with Russia were expected. These risks accelerated an already started transaction, incl. faster completion of transportation. Second, at the end of February, Russia’s aggression had resulted in transport restrictions to and from the ports of the northern Black Sea, and this led to the need to look for alternative routes for cargo transportation.

In March of this year, the process of reorienting the flow of cargo from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine to other directions has just begun. On the other hand, already in the second quarter of this year, new logistics and transit schemes have been developed and implemented, which ensure the exchange of goods between Europe and the unoccupied part of Ukraine. Part of Ukraine’s transit flow was redirected to the Black Sea ports in Romania and Bulgaria, however, a significant part of Ukraine’s exports and imports has already been redirected to the ports of the southern part of the Baltic Sea – Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

As a result of Russian aggression and the sanctions imposed against Russia, two processes will affect Baltic Sea cargo transportation. Under the influence of EU sanctions and the general boycott policy, the flow of cargo from and to Russia and Belarus will decrease, while due to the blockade of the Black Sea ports, the Baltic ports will receive part of the cargo that was transported through the Black Sea ports of Ukraine until now.